Thursday, June 23, 2011

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  • amitjoey
    01-30 06:10 PM
    done voting
    This is for the Democratic candidates debate....There is also a link for asking questions for Republican candidates. How do we post the question there?




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  • svkrishna
    01-31 02:22 AM
    Hi Prashantc

    We( H1b Extension for 3 time and H4 for my wife)appeared for an interview on Jan 17th. Yet to receive passports.
    Cancelled my tickets already.
    Based on your case, if they ask us the documents after 16 odd days.. I would say I am doomed. My employer( Not consulting company) might create problems.

    Good luck to you bro
    Vamsi




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  • justAnotherFile
    07-18 08:09 PM
    Latest on this on Greg Siskind's blog...
    "Some of you have been concerned about my post regarding the rejection of some applications received on July 2nd. I've been checking and it seems to be true that some cases were sent back that day. Apparently, the number of cases sent back is small, however, so that is good news. And you should have received the case back by now if you're in that group"
    http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2007/07/july-2nd-filers.html




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  • deepakd
    04-19 11:06 AM
    Receipt No 2575-4357-9878-1984

    I just contributed $200. I appreciate all of you guys hard work for this.

    My GC processing has noy been started yet. It would be started probably within 6 mos by my new emplyer under eb3
    I got 5 years in my H1B out of 6



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  • 485Mbe4001
    06-05 07:04 PM
    and who/how will we bell that cat(or similar cats)?
    Thank you for making the calls.

    I just called all the numbers and left messages. Wouldn't it be more impactful if we have someone like Vinod Khosla represent us. These calls are great but someone who can walk directly into the Congresswoman/Congressman office will give us greater mileage in our efforts.




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  • Refugee_New
    08-26 03:31 PM
    You seem to believe in all the conspiracy theories out there. India is no more a third world country. There are many deep pockets and if there was any such arbitrague existing people will mint money all day long. Rupee is not fully floating currency that doesn't mean you can control what the exchange rate is going to be. No company or congolmerate can manipulate market like that.

    Yes, we are not a third world country. Thats why we still see people like Harshad Mehta and Abdul karim Telgi. Both stock market and stamp paper, backbone of indian economy could be easily exploited by two individuals.

    We are still manipulating the stock market. From 3000 to 21,000. Every sadhus, saint, soothsayers, magician, poojari's, astrologers predicting sensex to touch 35,000 by this year end. Even one guy predicted, 50,000 points in 2010.

    I am just telling the fact. Look at TOI and other online newpapers economic section. Read the past year news.

    Side note: stable oil(price) is the backbone of world economy. We know who manipulates this oil market and who gains out of it? Is it not a few corporations? But tell me honestly how many countries are affected by this inflated oil price.

    One wallstreet analyst said. If you have Iran and Isreal in one statement, that is more than enough to shoot up the oil price. Why do we see calm and storm in the market every now and then?

    Point here is: if this can happen in the developed nations, why not in India?



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  • snathan
    01-17 02:25 PM
    ^^^^^^^^^




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  • baskarans
    03-30 02:52 PM
    Got Two soft luds on mine and my wifes one on 3/17 and one on 3/18 no RFE or anything yet. People who say they got RFE after Soft lud could you Please Post how long after the soft LUDS you got RFE (hard LUD)



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  • vjkypally
    03-14 09:21 AM
    We should lobby to stop Portability from EB3 to EB2:).




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  • smisachu
    07-31 05:00 PM
    smisachu,

    here is what i have figured out in last 4 year and i have been to various blogs.

    1. i have read various blogs all are saying trading options with all good stuff you can hardly make any money. Most of the term you have used i have some idea what its is , but havent studied it properly.

    There is no silver bullet that will make money all the time. If some one says so he is lying. Options can give you a chance to minimize risk but also cap profits. And you can be wiped out in options routinely. However in stocks it is a rare event when your stock goes to zero.

    2. trading is gambling- you can have some edge by stastical analysis what have performed well over a long time. so backtest u r system over 10 years.

    Trading is most certainly gambling, even fixed income. You can build a model and hedge to reduce risk and make it a calculated gamble but still a gamble..

    3. would like to know what kind returns are you targeting with options

    Most professional option traders generate income by writing options. Writing options are very risky as you have a theoretical loss probability reaching infinity. Forming synthetic positions will minimize risk but you might bleed hedging the position. A seller of option is long theta and short delta; a buyer of options is short theta and long delta. Think of theta as the time factor and delta as the hedge factor to put simply. If you sell a call option you have to hedge the option by buying delta units of the underlying stock. And when the call is at the money or near you will end up buying the stock high and selling the stock low, thus loosing money. Black and Scholes famously showed that in an option trade you can delta hedge the risk away. This is not possible and their model is flawed. But it is simple and intuitive and every one serious in trading options NEEDS to learn the model. You don�t have to know the derivation but just the model, and the partial differential equation. I can talk about the flaw and the smile and smile dynamics but many of these concepts need to be drawn out and very hard to explain with out drawing.


    4. spreads can be an way to go ..but has to be directional bet or else difficult. I have seen lot of iron condor guys breaking down in recent melt down and up.

    Any model will work only for certain duration. That is why you need to keep running it and that is why quants have jobs. In stat arb sometimes you run models 3 times or more a day. I mean complicated mathematical models getting data from a provider and running large data sets to find the mean. And then trade when the stock diverges from the mean.
    Each strategy or model has shelf life, so you need to keep researching and running new models.

    Spreads are a good way of limiting down side while also capping upside. Volatility spreads are the most profitable ones and again short straddle makes money almost 95% of times but the 5% when they loose they will loose big. You need to have a certain limiting conditions and then hedge the spread with in this range. Usually you will make a little or loose a little. Sometimes you will hit a home run. It is easy to show this on a graph


    5. so i kind of believe in hit and run and momentum play - what else can make you money where nothing is certain

    I don�t trade momentum, swing or technical indicators. But there are profitable traders who do this.


    6. buying when rsi2 is depressed and selling quickly - can be spread havent back tested it.
    i backtest using stockfetcher. but u cant backtest options, you have to manually do it. itried some using think or swim platform.

    Relative strength Index, McClellan RSI(2) and Oscillators can be an indicator of stock movement. Relating it to the option market is abstract but I think possible. But I feel the options will already be priced in for such potential movements in the underlying. A very good quant I know always says any new strategy will first manifest itself in the derivatives market before equity as the players there are much more sophisticated.

    I am not sure which retail trading platform has good back testing, try options first with scottrade. I use Bloomberg which has loads of functions like OVME-GO where you can back test , simulate and see the volatility surface.


    so i am trying to see if anybody else has any good strategy to share.

    There are many good strategies but I have no idea on sophistication of each individual. For example right now you can sell credit default swaps on Goldman sachs medium senior secured notes and hedge it with delta units of binary in-the-money call options on the VIX. This will give you synthetic exposure to the notes with steady cash flow and the binaries are cheap. If goldman defaults the VIX will sky rocket giving you a handsome payout better than what you will have to pay on the senior secured notes because of high recovery rate if all the default climbs up to the senior tranche. Actually this would be equal to the end of the world in today�s market.

    Or better yet just buy SPX and sit, the market is doing all the work for you.

    The US natural gas market is in contango (I swear this is not jargon:o, there is no other term). So buy long dated/leap calls at the money now. In 2 years you will be so deep in the money you wont know what to do. But average retail investor cannot hedge this as he cannot trade spot.

    So I guess my point is there are sophisticated ways to make money for which the average retail investor has no access to. If there is a simple way then it has already been exploited under the no-arbitrage clause of free markets.

    If you have 2-5 year horizon. Go long the market and sit on it would be my best advice. If people want to meet and share ideas I am open to it. I live in NJ so NY/NJ is fine spot to meet.



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  • pappu
    01-10 07:53 PM
    I have been a IV member since 2006 . I have seen the ups/downs . donated money , sent letters , attended rallies and done whatever has been been proposed . But I see that many senior members who had the drive to motivate people are not sending or being part of any messages or threads at all and that is exactly why the movement seems to be losing steam .

    The standard response that I see to any question is "have you donated money ? " . "Don't ask for anything till you have donated. " this is followed by some some red dots which normally works to silence the questions. People will be willing to donate when they believe in the movement . I remember we collected $ 30,000 in 1 month before the rally there was huge thread with all the donations . People were charged up and the money came up automatically . I am willing to donate but to be brutally honest I do not see the same level of motivation as was there in 2006 / 2007 days .Please use this as a wakeup call and not as reason to vent your frustration on me .

    There are many senior members who I do not even see any more . Members joining in late 2007 or early 2008 will not know any of these guys .

    Aman Kapoor . He is the founder of IV . I have not seen his messages since the past 3 years almost . Where is he ? Is it too much for him to send a greeting in New years eve motivating the members ? It takes just 2 minutes .

    Mark Bartosik :- He was supposed to the spokesperson for IV .The guy with the MasterCard sign for immigration . I have not seen him for quite some time now
    Where are the other senior leaders like
    a) Walden Pond
    b) There was a this British Girl from San Jose ( had a handle which had name like Rose or something )
    c) Niloufer Bustani from Dallas. I see her once in a while but very sparingly .

    The others even I have forgotten completely.

    The only leadership/core that I see is Pappu and no one else . If you have a country where the prime minister shows his face only once in 4 years , how are the people supposed to believe in that movement ? Please don't reply with a message saying what have I done or why can't I contribute money ? I have done that I am looking for leadership to show us the way and motivate us . All campaigns don't need money donations( Letters , calls , faxes etc ) . We could start with that and then drum up support and momentum and then the money will start flowing in automatically . There has to be a synchronized campaign organized by the leadership and all I see is everybody putting their eggs in the basket called spillover.

    IV core team is very active and working hard. Just because we do not see their posts on the forum does not mean they are not active. Aman Kapoor or Waldenpond- IV founder is very much active and working hard on this mission despite having his greencard. We have regular daily discussions as a team and he is one person I have seen who sleeps, drinks and live this effort all the time. He has spent his personal money to travel to DC and still takes time off from work to travel to DC on regular basis. Likewise there are others who are committed to this effort and are working hard on the tasks assigned to them. You see me most of the time writing on the forum because in the core team, this is the task assigned to me. I communicate with members. If we have everyone posting on the forum, it will not be a good use of our limited time off work on daily basis. Also know that IV is not forums. Just by writing on the forums, nothing ever gets done on the hill. There are several tasks that we have to do in this advocacy effort to get something done. You can see more regular updates on the donor forum on what we do behind the scenes. It takes lot of effort, commitment and patience to be active in this effort because results are not immediate or guaranteed. But with our efforts we have have had our successes and we are positive about the future successes. The key is to be consistent, persistent and passionate about this advocacy work. We need to understand that we as an organization represent hundreds of thousands of people suffering due to the broken immigration system despite following all the rules and being legal in this country. This long wait has caused lot of pain and suffereing in people's lives and careers. Everyday we feel the pressure of hopes of thousands of our members who look upto us with some ray of light. As leaders of this organization we carry this responsibility bravely every day on our shoulders and feel motivated from the support of our members and the passion we have for this cause.




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  • abd
    04-07 01:36 PM
    I am settng up tea stall at Asian Festival(just for fun) , i will give all my profit to IV. Approx. 20,000 people visit the festival so i should be able to make atleast $200-300 profit with my tea stall.

    Also, i am sending my $100 contibution by money order



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  • vsrinir
    09-17 10:39 AM
    As Last time they did ...will there be lunch recess around 11:30am?????




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  • sammyb
    01-30 05:19 PM
    it is now Q26 ....

    good find man ...



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  • sweet_jungle
    02-11 05:29 PM
    I am with you. giveme the details




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  • smuggymba
    01-21 10:10 AM
    How a consulting firm will control the work for 3 years for a client in advance, this is called subcontracting of work not consulting.

    The plan is to start the selective targetting at some point and then work all the way up.

    I'm surprised there is no opposition to jobs that illegals take and Green Card lottery.

    People are only after people who make more money. Jelousy. That's it.



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  • gc_rip
    09-14 03:21 PM
    It is very difficult to get a bill passed in House for increasing visa numbers. Be it legal or illegal there is no way House will pass anything that increases visa numbers this election year. I am doubtful even for next year.

    For this year or for now we should just get something like "ability to file 485 even when visa numbers are unavailable". This is something which will provide some relief to all of us and has good chance of going through. Subsequently we can keep trying to get the SKIL bill passed next year.

    Absolutely. Now with PERM and premium 140, if we can file 485, and then hit the snooze button for 10 years -- no problem for me. I know, not everyone will be lucky to board onto the PERM, but atleast it will be relief for most of us.




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  • gsc999
    07-19 04:17 PM
    The donations that we make to IV will be part of the general corpus which will be used for lobbying. As one core member pointed out 99% of that fund is utilized for lobbying, I am guessing remaining 1% is spent on hosting IV website.

    If you guys want to help Aman we could write a personal check favoring Aman. What do you guys think?




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  • gc28262
    01-28 04:39 PM
    I didn't find where in the PDF AILA is saying the definition is illegal!

    They provide one example a court ruling where the EE definition was established in the case of an insurance agent. But such an issue has already been address by the EE memo by USCIS (Temporary/Occasional Off-Site Employment).

    Is it your own interpretation that the EE definition in the memo is illegal or did you read it somewhere in AILA's response?

    AILA Memo (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/AILA-Memo-Seeking-Revokation-of-Neufeld-Memorandum.pdf)
    Page 3
    The AAO�s analysis contained in non-precedent decisions but cited repeatedly by adjudicators to justify RFEs, NOIDs and Denials -- and now expressed in the AFM revisions regarding H-1B petitions -- begins with the proposition that the beneficiary in any employment-based nonimmigrant or immigrant petition must be an �employee� of the petitioning employer. The AAO then notes that the term �employee� is not clearly defined anywhere in the INA and concludes that absent such a definition, under Darden and Clackamas, it must look to the common law definition of employee to determine who is and is not eligible for employment-based benefits under the INA.2 While the common law definition employs a multi-factor test, the AAO and subsequent adjudications, and the Neufeld Memorandum, have focused almost exclusively on one element: control.
    AILA memo deals with multiple issues in the memo, not just consulting company scenario. (L1, Self sponsoring employee etc) Hence we can get lost while reading the memo. Central to the argument is "Common Law" that AILA hasn't gone in depth.

    desi3933,

    Please refer AILA memo (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/AILA-Memo-Seeking-Revokation-of-Neufeld-Memorandum.pdf) as they have already detailed the law points in it.
    Also you seem to be quoting USCIS documents. If USCIS was clear about the law, they wouldn't have issued this memo in the first place. If USCIS memo contradicts INA, INA prevails.




    wawa
    09-30 01:28 AM
    What are your priority dates? They may now be working on your GC application.

    I've already got my GC approved in Feb. 2007.




    ushkand
    07-19 07:00 PM
    Mailed: June 29th
    Service Center: NSC
    Delivered: July 2, 7:55 am (Signed: R. Williams)
    Mode of shipping: Fedex
    Check Cashed?: no
    Receipt: not yet.

    Same as me :D but for the fact that I sent in mine without medical. What do you guys think the chances are of USCIS sending an RFE instead of rejecting the application outright?

    Btw..I did "re-file" with completed medical yesterday. I am just hoping they accept my July 2 app. to avail, if any, advantages of RD.



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